When Will Interest Rates Go Up?

The Fed doesn't plan on raising interest rates this year

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Rising interest rates increase the cost of credit cards, loans, and mortgages. They also improve the interest you can earn on savings accounts and certificates of deposit (CDs).

At the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in December 2021, the Fed confirmed that it would maintain its target for the fed funds rate at a range of 0% to 0.25%. The Fed doesn't plan to increase them again until reaching its goal for inflation.

This plan won't impact savings accounts, mortgages, CDs, and credit cards all in the same way. Each product relies on a different benchmark. As a result, increases for each depend on how their interest rates are determined. Here's what you need to know about interest rates, when the Fed will raise them, and how your finances will be affected.

The two most important determinants of consumer interest rates are the fed funds rate for short-term loans and the 10-year Treasury yield for long-term loans.

When Will the Fed Raise Interest Rates?

On Dec. 15, 2021, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced that it wouldn't raise the fed funds rate. The FOMC is the monetary policy arm of the Federal Reserve System. Similar to its November 2021 meeting, the committee said it wouldn't raise the rate until inflation met its long-term goal of an average of 2%.

The current fed funds rate target range is 0% to 0.25%. The FOMC lowered it to that level on March 15, 2020, to support the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The last time it lowered the rate to this level was in December 2008. It stayed there until December 2015.

On March 9, 2020, the 10-year Treasury yield fell to a record low of 0.54%. Investors were panicked because of the COVID-19 pandemic. As of Dec. 14, 2021, the rate was 1.44%. Demand for ultra-safe Treasurys are likely to remain high during the pandemic.

The Fed also influences Treasury yields. Through its quantitative easing (QE) program, the central bank purchases Treasuries to keep the yield low.

On March 23, 2020, the FOMC expanded QE purchases to an unlimited amount. As a result, its balance sheet grew to more than $7 trillion by the end of June 2020.

Once the economy improves, demand for Treasuries should fall. The yields rise as sellers try to make the bonds more attractive. Higher Treasury yields drive up interest rates on long-term loans, mortgages, and bonds.

How High Can Rates Go?

The Fed doesn't plan on raising the fed funds rate until the economy improves and inflation reaches an average of 2%. Historically, the benchmark rate has had a sweet spot of 2% to 5%. The highest it's ever been was 19%-20% in 1980 and 1981.

The Fed raised it to combat an inflation rate of 13.5%. It also raised it to battle stagflation—the unusual circumstance caused by wage-price controls, stop-go monetary policy, and taking the dollar off of the gold standard. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note also hit a record high in 1981—it was 15.84% on September 30, 1981.

Long-term rates could rise higher at any time since they are bought and sold on the secondary market. However, it's unlikely that they will rise, since the Fed is buying enough through QE to keep rates low.

Short-Term Rates

All short-term interest rates follow the fed funds rate. The fed funds rate is the interest rate banks charge each other for overnight loans. While banks set short-term rates themselves, they rarely vary from the Fed's target rate.

Banks know that the Fed can use open market operations to pressure them to meet their target rate. Short-term rates affect the interest rates on savings accounts, CDs, credit cards, and adjustable-rate loans.

Savings Accounts and CDs

Interest rates for savings accounts and certificates of deposit track the London Interbank Offer Rate (Libor). That's the interest rate at which major international banks are willing to offer eurodollar deposits to one another.

The Libor rate rarely diverges from the fed funds rate. Banks may pay you a little less than Libor so they can make a profit. Savings accounts may follow the one-month Libor rate, while CDs may follow longer-term rates. Libor is expected to be phased out sometime after 2021.

Credit Card Rates

Banks base credit card rates on the prime rate, which is what they charge their best customers for short-term loans, typically 3 percentage points higher than the fed funds rate.

The average credit card APR has hovered around 20% for the past two years, depending on your credit score and the type of card. It's always a good idea to pay off any outstanding credit card balances due to the high rates.

Home Equity Lines of Credit and Adjustable Rate Loans

The fed funds rate guides adjustable-rate loans. These include home equity lines of credit and mortgages. As the fed funds rate rises, so will the cost of these loans. Pay them down as much as you can to avoid any surprises. Since 2021 rates are low, you could talk to your bank about switching to a fixed-rate loan to protect yourself from future rate increases.

Long-Term Rates

Long-term rates follow the 10-year Treasury yield. The U.S. Treasury sells Treasury bills, notes, and bonds at an auction for a fixed interest rate that loosely tracks the fed funds rate. Investors can then sell them on the secondary market.

Many factors influence bonds yields, including the demand for the dollar from forex traders. When demand for the dollar rises, so does the demand for Treasuries. Investors will pay more to buy them. Since the interest rate doesn't change, the overall yield falls. 

Demand for Treasuries also increases when there are global economic crises. That's because the U.S. government guarantees repayment. All of these factors mean that interest rates on long-term debt aren't as easy to predict as those based on the fed funds rate.

Auto and Short-Term Loans

Fixed interest rates on three- to five-year loans don't follow the prime rate, Libor, or the fed funds rate. Instead, they are a few percentage points higher than one, three, and five-year Treasury bill yields. Yields are the total return that investors receive for holding the bills.

When rates do rise again, you may want to consider keeping your fixed-rate loans. Rising interest rates won't affect them.

Mortgage Rates and Student Loans

Banks set fixed rates on conventional mortgages a little higher than the yields on 30-year Treasury bonds. Interest rates on long-term loans rise along with those yields. The same holds true for student loans. Mortgage interest rates closely follow Treasury note yields.

Bonds

State, municipal, and corporate bonds compete with U.S. Treasuries for investors' dollars. As they are riskier than U.S. government bonds, they must pay higher interest rates than Treasuries.

Fitch, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's are the main agencies that rate the risk of default. Bonds with the most risk, called "high-yield" or "junk" bonds, pay the most return. When Treasury yields rise, so do the yields of these bonds to remain competitive.