When Will Interest Rates Go Up?

The Fed doesn't plan on raising interest rates until 2023

Young man working at home
•••

Eva-Katalin/Getty Images

Rising interest rates increase the cost of credit cards, loans, and mortgages. They also improve the interest you can earn on savings accounts and certificates of deposit (CDs).

Interest rates stopped rising in 2019. As of September 2020, the Fed doesn't plan on increasing them again until at least 2023.

This won't impact savings accounts, mortgages, CDs, and credit cards all in the same way. Each product relies on a different benchmark. As a result, increases for each depend on how their interest rates are determined. Here's what you need to know about interest rates, when the Fed will raise them, and how this impacts your finances.

The two most important determinants of interest rates are the fed funds rate for short-term loans and the 10-year Treasury yield for long-term loans.

When Will the Fed Raise Interest Rates?

On Sept. 16, 2020, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced it wouldn't raise the fed funds rate until inflation remains at or above 2%. The FOMC is the monetary policy arm of the Federal Reserve System. Its forecast, issued at the same September 2020 meeting, said that inflation won't reach that level until about 2023.

The current fed funds rate target range is 0% to 0.25%. The FOMC lowered it to that level on March 15, 2020, to support the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The last time it lowered the rate to this level was in December 2008. It stayed there until December 2015.

On March 9, 2020, the 10-year Treasury yield fell to a record low of 0.54%. Investors were panicked because of the COVID-19 pandemic. As of Sept. 18, 2020, the rate had risen slightly to 0.70%. Demand for ultra-safe Treasurys will remain high during the pandemic.

The Fed also influences Treasury yields. Through its quantitative easing (QE) program, the central bank purchases Treasurys to keep the yield low.

On March 23, 2020, the FOMC expanded QE purchases to an unlimited amount. As a result, its balance sheet almost doubled in a few months to more than $7 trillion.

Once the economy improves, demand for Treasurys will fall. The yields rise as sellers try to make the bonds more attractive. Higher Treasury yields drive up interest rates on long-term loans, mortgages, and bonds.

How High Can Rates Go?

The Fed doesn't plan on raising the fed funds rate until at least 2023, or until the economy improves. Historically, the benchmark rate has had a sweet spot of 2% to 5%. The highest it's ever been was 20% in 1980 and 1981. The Fed raised it to combat an inflation rate of 13.5%. It also battled stagflation—the unusual circumstance caused by wage-price controls, stop-go monetary policy, and taking the dollar off of the gold standard. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note also hit a record high in 1981—it was 15.84% on Sept. 30, 1981.

Long-term rates could rise higher at any time since they are bought and sold in the secondary market. Although they could, it's unlikely they will rise since the Fed is buying enough through QE to keep rates low.

Short-Term Rates

All short-term interest rates follow the fed funds rate. The fed funds rate is the interest rate banks charged each other for overnight loans. While banks set this rate themselves, it rarely varies from the Fed's target rate. Banks know that the Fed can use open market operations to pressure them to meet the target. Short-term rates affect the interest rates on savings accounts, CDs, credit cards, and adjustable-rate loans.

Savings Accounts and CDs

Interest rates for savings accounts and certificates of deposit track the London Interbank Offer Rate (Libor). That's the interest rate at which major international banks are willing to offer eurodollar deposits to one another. The Libor rate rarely diverges from the fed funds rate. Banks may pay you a little less than Libor so they can make a profit. Savings accounts may follow the one-month Libor rate, while CDs may follow longer-term rates. 

Credit Card Rates

Banks base credit card rates on the prime rate. It's what they charge their best customers for short-term loans. It's 3 percentage points higher than the fed funds rate. Banks can charge anywhere from 8% to 17% more for credit card rates, depending on your credit score and the type of card. It's always a good idea to pay off any outstanding credit card balances since rates can be so high.

Home Equity Lines of Credit and Adjustable Rate Loans

The fed funds rate guides adjustable-rate loans. These include home equity lines of credit and mortgages. As the fed funds rate rises, so will the cost of these loans. Pay them down as much as you can to avoid any surprises. With 2020 rates are so low, talk to your bank about switching to a fixed-rate loan to protect yourself from future rate increases.

Long-Term Rates

Long-term rates follow the 10-year Treasury yield. The U.S. Treasury sells Treasury bills, notes, and bonds at an auction for a fixed interest rate that loosely tracks the fed funds rate. Investors can then sell them on the secondary market.

Many factors influence their yields. These include the demand for the dollar from forex traders. When demand for the dollar rises, so does the demand for Treasurys. Investors will pay more to buy them. Since the interest rate doesn't change, the overall yield falls. 

Demand for Treasurys also increases when there are global economic crises. That's because the U.S. government guarantees repayment. All these factors mean interest rates on long-term debt aren't as easy to predict as those based on the fed funds rate. 

Auto and Short-Term Loans

Fixed interest rates on three- to five-year loans don't follow the prime rate, Libor, or the fed funds rate. Instead, they are a few percentage points higher than one, three, and five-year Treasury bill yields. Yields are the total return investors receive for holding the bills. 

When rates do rise again, it will be best to keep your fixed-rate loans. Rising interest rates won't affect them.

Mortgage Rates and Student Loans

Banks set fixed rates on conventional mortgages a little higher than the yields on 10-year, 15-year, and 30-year Treasury bonds. Interest rates on long-term loans rise along with those yields. The same holds true for student loans. Mortgage interest rates closely follow Treasury note yields. 

If you're thinking of refinancing, now may be the time to lock in a lower fixed rate. For new homebuyers, be wary of an adjustable-rate mortgage just to afford a bigger house. It may be better to get a fixed-rate loan to protect yourself from future rate increases.

Bonds

State, municipal, and corporate bonds compete with U.S. Treasurys for investors' dollars. Since they are riskier than U.S. government bonds, they must pay higher interest rates than Treasurys. That's true for all other types of bonds.

Fitch, Moody's Investors Service, and Standard & Poor's are the main agencies that rate the risk of default. Bonds with the most risk, called high-yield bonds, pay the most return. When Treasury yields rise, so do these bonds to remain competitive.

Article Sources

  1. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. "Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement, Sept. 16, 2020." Accessed Sept. 18, 2020.

  2. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. "Sept. 16, 2020: FOMC Projections Materials, Accessible Version." Accessed Sept. 18, 2020.

  3. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. "Federal Reserves Issues FOMC Statement: March 15." Accessed Sept. 18, 2020.

  4. U.S. Department of the Treasury. “Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates.” Accessed Sept. 18, 2020.

  5. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. "Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement: March 23, 2020." Accessed Sept. 18, 2020.

  6. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. "Credit and Liquidity Programs and the Balance Sheet: Recent Balance Sheet Trends." Accessed Sept. 18, 2020.

  7. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. "Changes in the Intended Federal Funds Rate, 1971-1992," Page 8. Accessed Sept. 18, 2020.

  8. Bureau of Labor Statistics. "Historical CPI-U," Page 4. Accessed Sept. 18, 2020.

  9. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. "10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate." Accessed Sept. 18, 2020.

  10. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. "What Is Libor and Why Do Libor Interest Rates Move Closely in Line With Short-Term Interest Rates in the U.S.?" Accessed Sept. 18, 2020.

  11. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. "What Is the Prime Rate, and Does the Federal Reserve Set the Prime Rate?" Accessed Sept. 18, 2020.

  12. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. "The Federal Reserve Board: Consumer Handbook on Adjustable-Rate Mortgages." Accessed Sept. 18, 2020.

  13. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. "Terms of Credit at Commercial Banks and Finance Companies." Accessed Sept. 18, 2020.

  14. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. "1-Year Treasury Bill: Secondary Market Rate." Accessed Sept. 18, 2020.

  15. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. "30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States." Accessed Sept. 18, 2020.

  16. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. "30-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate." Accessed Sept. 18, 2020.

  17. Investor.gov. "Municipal Bonds." Accessed Sept. 18, 2020.

  18. Fidelity. "Bond Ratings." Accessed Sept. 18, 2020.