Petrodollars and the System that Created It
Will the Petrodollar Collapse?
The petrodollar is any U.S. dollar paid to oil-exporting countries in exchange for oil. Since the dollar is a global currency, all international transactions are priced in dollars. As a result, oil-exporting nations must receive dollars. That makes their national income dependent on the dollar's value. If it falls, so does the government's revenue.
As a result, most of America's trade partners also peg their currencies to the dollar. That way, if the dollar’s value falls, so does the price of all their domestic goods and services. That helps these countries avoid wide swings in inflation or deflation.
The Coming Collapse of the Petrodollar?
The United States uses the power of petrodollars to enforce its foreign policy. But many countries don’t fight back. They are afraid it would mean the collapse of the petrodollar.
For example, the United States sanctioned Iran for refusing to halt its development of potential nuclear weapons. Similarly, it hit Russia with trade embargoes for invading Crimea and creating a crisis in Ukraine. As a result, these countries signed a five-year trade deal with each other that is worth $20 billion. Critically, it is not priced in dollars, and it includes the sale of Iran's oil.
Venezuela and Iran also signed oil contracts in their currencies instead of petrodollars. China called for a replacement of the U.S. dollar as a global currency. Ironically, it is one of the largest foreign holders of the dollar. China influences the U.S. dollar by pegging its currency, the yuan, to it.
Will these rogue attacks on the dollar cause a collapse? No, at least not for the near future. That is because there is no good alternative. The Euro is the second-most circulated currency. It has undergone attack from within, thanks to the Eurozone crisis.
The petrodollar system originated at the 1944 Bretton Woods conference. After World War II, the United States held most of the world's supply of gold. It agreed to redeem any U.S. dollars for its value in gold if all other countries pegged their currencies to the dollar. That established the dollar as the world's reserve currency.
On February 14, 1945, President Roosevelt formalized an alliance with Saudi Arabia. He met with Saudi King Abd al-Aziz. The United States built an airfield at Dhahran in return for military and business training. The alliance survived differences of opinion over the Arab-Israeli conflict.
It would take another global agreement to replace the dollar with something else. Many people have been worriedly asking this question, “Will the U.S. Dollar collapse?”
In 1971, U.S. stagflation prompted the United Kingdom to redeem most of its U.S. dollars for gold. President Nixon took the dollar off the gold standard to protect the remaining gold reserves. As a result, the value of the dollar plummeted. But according to the history of the gold standard, the gold standard abandonment served to spur economic growth for the United States and other countries.
Although, that hurt the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. This was because their oil contracts were priced in U.S. dollars. Their oil revenue dropped along with the dollar. The cost of imports, denominated in other currencies, increased.
In 1973, Nixon asked Congress for military aid to Israel in the Yom Kippur War. OPEC halted oil exports to the United States and other Israeli allies. The OPEC oil embargo quadrupled the price of oil in six months. Prices remained high even after the embargo ended.
In 29179, the United States and Saudi Arabia negotiated the United States-Saudi Arabian Joint Commission on Economic Cooperation. They agreed to use American dollars for paying against oil contracts. The U.S. dollars would be recycled back to America through contracts with the U.S. contractors.
Since then, oil-exporting countries have become more sophisticated. They now recycle their petrodollars through sovereign wealth funds. They use these funds to invest in non-oil related businesses. The profits from these businesses make them less dependent on oil prices. Here are the world's largest petrodollar recyclers ranked by assets in 2017:
- Norway Government Pension Fund --$1.032 trillion.
- U.A.E. Abu Dhabi Investment Authority--$828 billion.
- Kuwait Investment Authority--$524 billion.
- Saudi Arabia SAMA--$494 billion.
- Qatar Investment Authority--$320 billion.
- Saudi Arabia Public Investment Fund--$223.9 billion.
- UAE Abu Dhabi Mubadala Investment Company--$125 billion.
- UAE Abu Dhabi Investment Council--$123 billion.
- National Development Fund of Iran--$91 billion.
- Russia National Welfare Fund--$66.3 billion.
- Libyan Investment Authority--$66 billion.
- Alaska Permanent Fund--$61.5 billion.
- Kazakhstan Samruk-Kazyna JSC--$60.9 billion.
- Kazakhstan National Fund--$57.9 billion.
- Brunei Investment Agency--$40 billion.
- Texas Permanent School Fund--$37.7 billion.
- UAE Emirates Investment Authority--$34 billion.
- Azerbaijan State Oil Fund--$33.1 billion.
Where Petrodollars Go
A 2006 U.S. Treasury Report indicated that increased oil prices generated an extra $1.3 trillion in revenue for OPEC countries since 1998. Oil revenue was spent on increased imports, higher wages for government employees, increasing reserves, and retiring debt. The oil-producing countries used these funds to provide a cushion to fall back on. They also learned from the recession of 1998 when demand for oil fell and prices declined. These actions helped to lower volatility in their economies and in the global economy.
Up to 70 percent of the $700 billion in OPEC's investable reserve funds could not be accounted for by the Bureau of International Settlements. The BIS only reported OPEC members, so that the non-OPEC funds were also unaccounted for. The Treasury said that oil exporting countries purchased about $270 million in U.S. securities. Based on other information, they suspected that the unaccounted-for funds were invested in construction loans, regional stock markets, private equity funds, and hedge funds.
An unknown amount of funds could have been invested in U.S. assets through foreign intermediaries, which are untraceable.
These hidden petrodollars increase global volatility. That’s due to their sheer size of $400 billion. If it is in U.S. Treasurys, a withdrawal of that size could trigger both a decline in the dollar and higher interest rates. That probably will not happen, since the United States is also one of OPEC's best oil customers.