US Budget Deficit by Year, Compared to GDP, Debt Increase, and Events

The U.S. budget deficit by year is how much more the federal government spends than it receives in revenue annually. The Fiscal Year 2018 U.S. budget deficit is $833 billion. That's at historically high levels.

The deficit hit a record of $1.4 trillion in the fiscal year 2009. That was due to both deficit spending to combat the 2008 financial crisis and lower tax receipts. 

Deficit Trends

The deficit should be compared to the country's ability to pay it back.

That ability is measured by gross domestic product. For example, the deficit in 1945 was only $48 billion. But it was 20.8 percent of total economic output as the country geared up for World War II. The record-setting 2009 deficit was only 9.8 percent of GDP. That seems more reasonable when compared to the 1945 deficit. But it's still much higher than the average of between 2 percent to 4 percent.

Each year's deficit adds to the national debt. That comparison is called the debt-to-GDP ratio. If the ratio is more than 77 percent, then the country reaches a tipping point. That's where lenders start worrying whether it's safe to buy the country's bonds. High deficits push the country toward that tipping point.

Since 1987, the deficit has been a lot less than the increase in the debt. Congress began borrowing from a surplus in the Social Security Trust Fund. The surplus was created by the baby boomer generation.

While they were in their 20s and 30s, there were more working people than retirees. Their payroll tax contributions were greater than Social Security spending.  The Fund invested the extra revenue in bonds. Congress spent that so it wouldn't have to issue as many new Treasury notes. 

Deficit by Year Since 1929

In the table below, the deficit is compared to the increase in the debt, nominal GDP, and national events since 1929.

Please note that the debt and GDP are given as of the end of the third quarter, specifically September 30, in each year. That coincides with the budget deficit's fiscal year. But GDP in the years up to 1947 are not available for the third quarter, so year-end figures are used.  

U.S. Deficit Since 1929 Compared to Increase in Debt, Deficit/GDP, and Major Events

Resources for Table

• Deficit: Historical Tables, Table 1.1, Office of Management and Budget. 
• Debt from 1929 to 2018: U.S. Treasury Historical Tables  and U.S. Treasury, Debt to the Penny.
• Debt from 2019 to 2021: FY 2019 budget, Analytical Perspectives, Table 4-2. Federal Government Financing and Debt.
• GDP and Personal Income, Table 1.1.5., U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
• Historical Fed Funds Rate
• History of Dow Closing Average
• History of Recessions
• Cost of Wars

More History

• Debt by President
• Deficit by President
• U.S. GDP by Year
• GDP Growth Rates by Year
• Unemployment Rate by Year
• Inflation by Year
• Gold Prices by Year