What Is the Current US Trade Deficit?

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The U.S. monthly trade deficit increased 11.2% to $80.9 billion in September 2021. U.S. exports decreased to $207.6 billion in September, a 3.0% decrease from August. Imports increased in September by .6% to $288.5 billion. Exports reduce the deficit while imports have the opposite effect.

Exports and imports dropped throughout 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic but have since exceeded pre-pandemic levels.

Key Takeaways

  • Long-term trade deficits hurt the economy.
  • A strong dollar increases the deficit by raising export prices.
  • Consumer products imports are the primary driver of the U.S. trade deficit.
  • The U.S. exports more services than it imports.

Annual US Trade Deficit

In 2020, the U.S. trade deficit was $676.7 billion, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The U.S. imported $2.8 trillion in goods and services, down $294 billion from 2019. Exports were at $2.1 trillion, which is $394 billion less than 2019.

The 2020 trade deficit was much higher than that of 2019.  At the end of 2019, it was $576.3 billion (vs. $676.7 billion in 2020). The COVID-19 pandemic had a dramatic effect on imports and exports over 2020.

While large, the deficit is still less than the record of $763.5 billion in 2006.

What Creates the US Trade Deficit?

Consumer products are the primary drivers of the trade deficit. In 2020, the U.S. imported over $2.3 trillion in consumer goods while exporting over $1.4 trillion. That created a $904.9 billion goods deficit and is the highest goods deficit on record.

New U.S. shale oil fields have been developed to the point where there is now an oversupply of oil. 

In 2020, the U.S. imported $116.4 billion of petroleum, the lowest amount since 2002. That includes crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, and other petroleum-based distillates such as kerosene. The 2020 petroleum surplus was $18.1 billion, the first annual surplus on record.

The US Is a Net Exporter of Services

In 2020, U.S. exports of services were $697.1 billion, which were the lowest since 2012. That exceeded its imports of $460.1 billion, which were the lowest since 2011. That created a trade surplus of $237.1 billion, which is the lowest since 2012. While numbers were lower than normal, U.S. services are still competitive in the global market. The surplus helps offset the deficit in goods.

The biggest contributor to the surplus were other business services, at $185.7 billion in exports. Other big contributors were:

  • Financial services: $135.8 billion
  • Intellectual property: $115.3 billion
  • Travel: $76.1 billion

Primary Trading Partners of the US

In 2020, the U.S. had a $551.2 billion deficit with its top five trading partners.

Country Deficit (in billions)
China $310.8
Mexico $112.7
Canada $15.0
Japan $55.4
Germany $57.3
Total $551.2

How the Dollar's Value Affects the Trade Deficit

The dollar declined against the euro from 2001 through 2008. This meant that U.S. goods and services were cheaper for Europeans. That made U.S. companies more competitive, increasing exports.

The 2008 recession offset this advantage, causing global trade to decline. This was despite the dollar's continued strength since 2009, due to the eurozone crisis weakening of the euro. The dollar briefly weakened in 2017 but strengthened in 2018 through the first part of 2020. That hurts exports. The dollar weakened throughout 2020 and into 2021.

Keep in mind that oil is priced in dollars. As the dollar declines, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) increases prices to maintain its revenue. U.S. reliance on oil means it will be difficult to escape its trade deficit.

Ways the Trade Deficit Hurts the US Economy

An ongoing trade deficit is detrimental to the nation’s economy because it is financed with debt. The U.S. can buy more than it makes because it borrows from its trading partners. It's like a party where the pizza place is willing to keep sending you pizzas and putting them on your tab. This can only continue as long as the pizzeria trusts you to repay the loan. One day, the lending countries could decide to ask America to repay the debt. However, this isn't likely to happen because it would have adverse effects on those country's currencies.

Another concern about the trade deficit is the statement it makes about the competitiveness of the U.S. economy itself. By purchasing goods overseas for a long enough period, U.S. companies lose their expertise and even the factories to make those products. As the nation loses its competitiveness, it outsources more jobs, which reduces its standard of living.