The U.S. Trade Deficit and How It Hurts the Economy
The Critical Drivers of the America's Trade Imbalance
In 2017, the total U.S. trade deficit was $566 billion. It imported $2.895 trillion of goods and services while exporting $2.329 trillion. The deficit is higher than in 2013 when it was $478 billion. One reason is that the dollar strengthened 28 percent between 2014 and 2016. A strong dollar makes imports cheaper and exports more expensive.
But the deficit is less than the record $762 billion in 2006. The decrease since then means U.S. exports grew faster than imports. That's good for U.S. businesses and job growth.
President Trump wants to reduce these deficits with protectionist measures. In March 2018, he announced he would impose a 25 percent tariff on steel imports and a 10 percent tariff on aluminum. On July 6, Trump's tariffs went into effect. China, the European Union, Mexico, and Canada have announced retaliatory tariffs.
Trump's tariffs will raise the costs of imported steel, increase the price of U.S. automobiles, and create layoffs. The tariffs have depressed the stock market since they were announced. Analysts worry that Trump has started a trade war that will hurt international trade.
Consumer Products and Autos Drive the Trade Deficit
Consumer products and automobiles are the primary drivers of the trade deficit. In 2017, the United States imported $602 billion in generic drugs, televisions, clothing, and other household items. It only exported $198 billion of consumer goods. The imbalance added $404 billion to the deficit. America imported $359 billion worth of automobiles and parts, while only exporting $158 billion. That added $201 billion to the deficit.
Petroleum Imports Are Falling
In 2017, the United States imported $183 billion in petroleum products. That includes crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, and other petroleum-based distillates such as kerosene. That was a lot lower than the record $313 billion imported in 2012. New U.S. shale oil fields have been developed to the point where there is now an oversupply.
U.S. petroleum exports were only $71 billion. As a result, petroleum trade contributed $92 billion to the trade deficit.
America Is a Net Exporter of Services
The United States exported more services than it imported. It exported $778 billion in services while importing only $534 billion. That created a trade surplus of $244 billion. It means U.S. services are very competitive in the global market. The surplus helps offset the deficit in goods.
Here's how much each category contributed to the trade surplus in services.
The Primary Trading Partners
The primary U.S. trading partners are China, with a total trade of $636 billion; Canada, with $582 billion; and Mexico, with $557 billion. The trade deficit with China is $375 billion. It's responsible for 66 percent of the total U.S. deficit in goods. The other U.S. trading partners don't create much of a deficit.
How Changes in the Dollar's Value Affects the Trade Deficit
The dollar declined 40 percent against the euro from 2001 through 2007. This meant that U.S. goods and services were 40 percent cheaper for Europeans. That made U.S. companies more competitive, increasing exports.
The recession offset this advantage, causing global trade to decline. U.S. exports dropped from $1.8 trillion in 2008 to $1.5 trillion in 2009. Imports fell from $2.3 trillion in 2007 to $1.6 trillion in 2009. Both exports and imports have risen since then. This was despite the continued strength of the dollar since 2009, due to the weakening effect of the eurozone crisis on the euro.
But the dollar has resumed its weakening trend. It is constantly pressured downward by the U.S. debt. Furthermore, oil is priced in dollars. As the dollar declines, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries increases prices to maintain its revenue. The U.S. reliance on oil means it will be difficult to escape its trade deficit.
Two Ways the Trade Deficit Hurts the U.S. Economy
An ongoing trade deficit is detrimental to the nation’s economy because it is financed with debt. The United States can buy more than it makes because it borrows from its trading partners. It's like a party where the pizza place is willing to keep sending you pizzas and putting it on your tab. This can only continue as long as the pizzeria trusts you to repay the loan. One day, the lending countries could decide to ask America to repay the debt. On that day, the party is over.
A second concern about the trade deficit is the statement it makes about the competitiveness of the U.S. economy itself. By purchasing goods overseas for a long enough period, U.S. companies lose the expertise and even the factories to make those products. Just try finding a pair of shoes made in America. As the United States loses competitiveness, it outsources more jobs and its standard of living declines.
How the U.S. Trade Deficit Is Part of the Balance of Payments
- Current Account
- Capital Account
- Financial Account