U.S. GDP Current Statistics (2006 to Present)

Economy Grows 1.2% in Second Quarter 2016

GDP statistics
Consumer expenditures continues to drive U.S. economic growth.. Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

The current U.S. GDP growth rate is 1.2%. That means the United States economy grew 1.2% in the second quarter of 2016. The second quarter was April through June. The ideal growth rate is between 2-3%. That's fast enough to provide enough jobs, but not so fast it will create inflation.

Current U.S. GDP, or Gross Domestic Product, is $18.437 trillion. That means all the people and companies that in the United States produced more than $18 trillion in the past year.

 

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases the GDP report at the end of each month. Each quarterly report gets three releases:

  1. Advance Estimate: Released one month after the quarter ends. It's often wildly different from the Third Estimate, simply because all of the trade and business inventory data is not in yet.
  2. Second Estimate: Comes out two months after the quarter. It's more realistic.
  3. Third Estimate: Released three months after the quarter. Usually only tweaks the Second Estimate. 

The BEA also made the following revisions:

For each quarter below, you'll see the most recent estimates first, followed by prior estimates (in parentheses, with the year the BEA revised them. Admittedly, the presentation is a little confusing, but it's important to see how the data continually changes.

A record of these revisions isn't readily available anywhere else.

2016:

Q2: 1.2%

  • Advance - The economy grew 1.2%. Consumer spending rose a healthy 4.2%. That was driven by a 3.0% increase in purchases for services. Consumers also spent 8.4% more on durable goods, such as automobiles, and 6.0% more on non-durable goods, such as clothing and groceries.  It propels nearly 70% of the economy and represents what families are willing to spend on everyday goods and services. Business investment fell 9.7%, due to a 3.5% drop in equipment purchases. Housing construction fell 6.1%%, and commercial construction (mostly apartment buildings) fell 7.9%. The strong dollar didn't hurt business exports, (mostly oil and commercial aircraft). They increased 1.4%.  Imports, which subtract from GDP, fell 0.4%. These trade estimates are based on just two months of data.  All other estimates are based on three months of data. Government spending fell 0.2%, thanks to a 1.3% drop in municipal outlays. Federal spending dropped 0.2%, due to a 3.0% decline in military spending. For more on these categories, see Components of GDP.

    Q1: 0.8% (1.1% before July 29, 2016, revision)

    • Advance - The economy grew 0.5%. Consumer spending rose 1.9%, thanks to a 2.7% increase in purchases for services. It was dragged down by a 1.6% decrease in spending on durable goods (mostly automobiles, plus appliances). This drives nearly 70% of the economy and represents what families are willing to spend on everyday goods and services. Business investment fell 3.5%, thanks to an 8.6% drop in equipment purchases. Housing construction rose 14.8%, but commercial construction (mostly apartment buildings) fell 10.7%. The strong dollar hurt business exports, (mostly oil and commercial aircraft). They declined 2.6%.  Imports, which subtract from GDP, rose 0.2%. These trade estimates are based on just two months of data.  All other estimates are based on three months of data. Government spending rose 1.2%, thanks to a 2.9% increase in municipal outlays. Federal spending dropped 1.6%, due to a 3.6% decline in military spending. For more on these categories, see Components of GDP.
    • Second - The BEA revised the estimate up to 0.8%. 
    • Third - After analysis of all incoming data, the BEA revised its estimate up to 1.1%. Exports rose more than initially expected. 

    2015: 2.6% (2.4% in 2015)

    Q4: 0.9% (1.4% in 2015 estimate)

    • Advance - The economy grew 0.7%. Commercial construction fell 5.3%, and business spending on equipment fell 2.5%. Home building rose 8.1%, and consumer spending rose 2.2%. Exports declined 5.4% due to the strong dollar. Federal government military spending rose 3.6%. State and local government spending fell 0.6%.
    • Second - The BEA revised the estimate up to 1.0%. Additional data showed that businesses added more to inventory than originally thought. 
    • Third - Growth was 1.4%, better than expected. New data revealed that personal consumption expenditures rose more than originally estimated. For more, see Current Retail Sales Statistics.

    Q3: 2.0% (Unchanged)

    • Advance - Growth was 1.5%. Commercial building, down 4.0%, was the biggest drag, and spending on business equipment fell 2.5%.  Military spending fell 1.4%. Exports only rose 1.9%, compared to 5.1% in the previous quarter. Both fell because of a strong dollar. A glut in oil inventories kept a lid on imports, which only rose 1.8%. Consumer spending remained strong, rising 3.2%. That was driven by a 6.7% increase in consumer durable goods, like automobiles, furniture, and appliances.
    • Second - The BEA revised the estimate upward to 2.1%. Business spending had only fallen 0.3%. That's because spending on equipment rose 9.5%. Homebuilding was also better than in the initial estimate, rising 7.3% vs. 6.1%. 
    • Third - The BEA revised the estimate down a smidge, to 2.0%. Inventories were slightly less than originally thought.

    Q2: 2.6% (3.9% in 2015 estimate) 

    • Advance -  The economy grew 2.3%. The largest driver was a 7.3% gain in consumer durable goods. Non-durable goods rose 3.6%, and spending on services rose 2.1%. These drove consumer spending up 2.9%. Business spending increased 0.3%. That's because of a 4.1% decline in equipment investment, and a 1.6% drop in commercial construction.  Exports rose 5.3%, despite a strong dollar. Imports rose 3.5%. Government spending increased just 0.8%, thanks to a 1.1% drop in federal spending, including a 1.5% cutback in military spending.
    • Second - The BEA substantially revised the estimate up to 3.7%. Consumer purchases of durable goods rose 8.2% while non-durable goods rose 4.1%. Residential was up 7.8% while exports of goods rose 6.5%. Federal government spending was flat, thanks to a 0.4% decline in non-defense spending. 
    • Third - Consumer spending boosted growth to 3.9%, higher than previous estimates.

    Q1: 2.0% (0.6% in July 2015 revision, -0.2% in 2015 estimate)

    • Advance - Thanks to winter storms, growth was just 0.2%. Consumer spending was just 1.9%. Business spending rose 2.0%, with commercial building down 23.1%, but offset with a 1.3% gain in housing construction.  The strong dollar walloped exports, which fell 7.2%. Imports only rose 1.8%. Government spending fell 0.85, thanks to a 0.7% cutback in military spending and a 1.5% drop in state and local spending. 
    • Second - Just like last year, the economy contracted in the first quarter. The BEA revised the growth rate, indicating a 0.7% drop in U.S. output. New data came in showing that imports were higher than originally estimated. 
    • Third - Turns out the economy only shrank 0.2%. New data showed that exports were higher than originally thought.

    2014: 2.4% (Unchanged)

    Q4: 2.3% (2.1% in July 2015 revision, 2.2% 2014 estimate)

    • Advance - The economy grew 2.6%. That was below estimates, but behind the headline was very positive news. Personal consumption expenditures rose 4.3%, the highest in four years. Business spending rose 7.4%, with gains in every segment except equipment (down 1.9%). Exports rose 2.8% but were offset by an 8.9% rise in imports, a 4-year high. The biggest drag was a 12.5% drop in military spending, which is to be expected after the 16% gain last quarter.  
    • Second - The BEA revised its growth estimate down, to 2.2%. Most of the revision came from a revision in business spending, which only rose 5.1%. Consumer spending was revised down to 4.2%.
    • Third - Growth estimates remained at 2.2%. Business spending was revised down to 4.7%. This was offset by a revision upwards of consumer spending, to 4.4%. Exports grew 4.5%, but this was more than offset by import growth of 10.4%. Federal government spending fell 7.3%, dragged down by a 12.2% cut in military spending. 

    Q3: 5.0% (4.3% in July 2015 revision, 5.0% in 2014 estimate)

    • Advance - There was a 3.6% increase in economic growth. However, it got a big boost from a 16% increase in defense orders. Exports also helped, rising 11%. This more than outweighed the 1.7% increase in imports. Boeing's August orders for commercial aircraft also contributed, sending durable goods up 7.2%. Last but not least, consumer spending on durable goods rose 7.2% as well. 
    • Second - The BEA revised growth to 3.9%, based on more current data. It showed that businesses didn't cut inventory as much as initially thought.
    • Third - The economy actually grew 5.0%, thanks to huge increases in military spending (16%), business equipment (11%), and personal consumption of durable goods, mostly autos (9.2%). 

    Q2: 4.0% (4.6% in both earlier estimates)

    • Advance - Most analysts don't believe the astounding 4.0% growth estimate, and expect it to be revised downward in the next two revisions. The BEA based it on a rebound in almost all areas from the severe downturn in the first quarter. The upturns were estimates in inventory investment, exports and imports estimates. 
    • Second - The BEA revised the growth rate up to 4.2%. The uptick was due to better data that shows commercial real estate grew a bit more than the original estimate. Inventories did not increase as much.
    • Third - Growth was revised up to a whopping 4.6%, based on more complete data that came in during August. These areas include: fixed investment, inventory, exports, and government spending.

    Q1: -1.2% (-0.9% in 2015 revision, -2.1% in 2014 revision, -2.9% in 2014)

    • Advance - Scary-low growth of only .1%. Exports dropped 12% while business spending fell 6.1%. Most analysts blamed it on severe winter storms. 
    • Second - The economy contracted 1.0%, thanks to a massive downward revision in inventory. That partly makes sense, since stores bought too much inventory for what turned out to be a weak holiday season. However, business investment was down a whopping 11.7%, driven by a 7.5% downturn in commercial real estate, a 5% decline in housing, and a 3.1% drop in equipment. Exports fell 6%, the biggest decline in at least four years. The only good news is that personal consumption of services rose 4.3%.  Is it the start of a recession (two quarters of economic contraction)? Probably not, but stay tuned.
    • Third - More data revealed what many had feared -- GDP fell by a whopping 2.9%, the biggest pull-back in five years. Another contraction like this and we are in a recession. Consumer spending grew just 1% while residential real estate investment fell 4.2%. Businesses drew down excess inventories, which subtracted 1.7% from growth.

    2013:  1.7% (1.5% in 2015 revision, 2.2% in 2014 revision, 1.9% in 2013) 

    Q4: 4.0%, (3.8% in 2015, 3.5% in 2014, 2.6% in 2013)

    • Advance - Healthy growth of 3.1% despite the government shutdown. Most of the consumer spending was for automobiles, washing machines and other big-ticket items financed by low-interest rate loans. Spending on these durable goods increased an astounding 5.9% in the fourth quarter. The stock market rose on the positive growth news, especially since the shutdown subtracted .3% growth in October. Another huge drag on growth was housing construction, which was down a whopping 9.8%. 
    • Second - Growth revised down to 2.4%. Personal consumption grew just 2.6%, instead of the first estimate of 3.3%. That is in keeping with the disappointing retail sales. Most of the decrease was from revised estimates for automobiles, washing machines, and other big-ticket items financed by low-interest rate loans. Spending on these durable goods only rose 2.5%, instead of the initial estimate of 5.9% in growth. Housing construction still showed an 8.7% decline.
    • Third - Revised up to 2.6% thanks to more complete data, which revealed that personal consumption rose 3.3%, (higher than last month's estimate of 2.6%. Construction remains a drag on growth. Housing construction was down 7.9%, while commercial construction fell 1.8%. That's not just because of cold weather -- last year at this time, home building was up 19.8%, while commercial construction rose 17.6%.

    Q3: 3.1% (3.0% in 2015, 4.5% in 2014, 4.1% in 2013)

    • Advance - 2.8% growth was because businesses stocked up on inventory. Consumer spending only increased 1.5%, the lowest in five years. This low rate of growth shows that most people aren't willing to spend a lot. This is confirmed by the slowdown in Halloween sales and projected softness for the Black Friday holiday shopping season. Most of the growth was from durable goods.  Government spending rose only .2%, driven mostly by state and local governments. Sequestration slowed federal spending by 1.7%. While some of the cutbacks were in defense, down .7%, most were in non-defense, which fell 3.3%. This all happened before the government shutdown. Exports rose 4.5%, while imports rose just 1.9%. 
    • Second -  The 3.6% growth rate was driven primarily by stores stocking up for the holiday shopping season, adding $16.5 billion, more than in the entire first half of the year. New home construction rose 14.6% while commercial construction increased 12.3%. Business spending on other equipment was actually down 3.7%, signaling low confidence.
    • Final - The 4.1% growth rate won't last. The boost was from stores stocking up on inventory for a retail season that disappointed. Consumer spending was sluggish, thanks to poor job growth.

    Q2: 0.8% (1.1% in 2015, 1.8% in 2014,  2.5% in 2013)

    • Advance - Exports and housing drove 1.7% growth.
    • Second - Better export data revised growth up to 2.5%.
    • Third - Estimate remains at 2.5%. Growth was driven by exports and residential construction and occurred despite everything that Washington threw at it (sequestration and tax hikes). 

    Q1: 2.8% (1.9% in 2015, 2.7% in 2014, 1.1% in 2013 revision, 1.8% in 2013) 

    • Advance - A solid 2.5% growth rate. The three main pistons of the economic engine contributed. First and foremost, housing construction solidly expanded in response to rising home prices and demand, something not seen in seven years. Second, consumer spending showed confidence. Third, farmers replenished their silos after the 2012 drought. 
    • Second - Estimate revised down only slightly to 2.4%. 
    • Third - The BEA lowered its estimate to 1.8%. Additional consumer spending data came in much lower than it initially thought.  That was because cold weather in March dampened retail sales.

    More GDP by Year

    For earlier years, see U.S. GDP by Year

    Continue Reading...