US National Debt by Year Compared to GDP and Major Events
U.S. Debt-to-GDP Ratio Has Risen Dramatically Since 1929
The U.S. national debt is more than $26 trillion. That's greater than the annual economic output of the entire country.
The U.S. began heading toward a debt default after threats to not raise the debt ceiling and the U.S. debt crisis in 2011. It continued with the "fiscal cliff" crisis in 2012 and government shutdown in 2013. While a debt default has yet to happen, the national debt continues to reach unprecedented levels.
Key Takeaways
- The debt-to-GDP ratio gives insight into whether the United States has the ability to cover all of its debt.
- A combination of recessions, defense budget growth, and tax cuts has raised the national debt-to-GDP ratio to unsustainable levels.
- The United States cannot afford to default on its debt without major global economic consequences.
How to Look at Debt by Year
It's best to look at a country's national debt in context. During a recession, expansionary fiscal policy, such as spending and tax cuts, is often used to spur the economy out of recession. During national threats, the United States increases military spending.
The national debt by year should be compared to the size of the economy as measured by the gross domestic product. That gives you the debt-to-GDP ratio.
You can use the debt-to-GDP ratio to compare the national debt to other countries. It gives you an idea of how likely the country is to pay back its debt.
The government creates debt with either excessive spending or deep tax cuts. If this expansionary fiscal policy boosts growth enough, it can reduce the debt. A growing economy produces more tax revenues to pay back the debt. The theory of supply-side economics says the growth from tax cuts is enough to replace the tax revenue lost. But that only occurs if taxes are too high—more than 50% of income, for example.
When the tax cuts are targeted at corporations and wealthier individuals, critics refers to this theory as "trickle-down economics," arguing that beneficiaries merely pocket the extra cash rather than distributing it to workers—exacerbating the national debt without providing economic stimulus.
Other events can also increase the national debt. For example, the U.S. debt grew after the September 11, 2011 attacks as the country increased military spending to launch the "War on Terror." Between fiscal years 2001 and 2020, those efforts cost $6.4 trillion, including increases to the Department of Defense and the Veterans Administration.
Debt by Year Compared to Nominal GDP and Events
In the table below, the U.S. debt by year is compared to GDP and national events since 1929. The debt and GDP are given as of the end of the third quarter, September 30, in each year to coincide with the fiscal year. That's the best way to accurately determine how spending in each fiscal year contributes to the debt and to compare it to economic growth.
Please note: From 1947-1976, debt and GDP are given at the end of the second quarter since, during that time, the fiscal year would end on June 30. For years 1929-1946, debt is reported at the end of the second quarter, while GDP is reported annually as quarterly figures are not available.
| End of Fiscal Year | Debt | Debt/GDP Ratio | Major Events by Presidential Term |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1929 | $17 | 16% | Market crash |
| 1930 | $16 | 18% | Hoover signed Smoot-Hawley, reducing trade |
| 1931 | $17 | 22% | Dust Bowl drought raged |
| 1932 | $19 | 33% | Hoover raised taxes |
| 1933 | $23 | 39% | FDR's New Deal increased both GDP and debt |
| 1934 | $27 | 40% | |
| 1935 | $29 | 39% | Social Security |
| 1936 | $34 | 40% | Tax hikes renewed depression |
| 1937 | $36 | 39% | Third New Deal |
| 1938 | $37 | 43% | Dust Bowl ended |
| 1939 | $40 | 43% | Depression ended |
| 1940 | $43 | 42% | FDR increased spending and raised taxes |
| 1941 | $49 | 38% | U.S. entered WWII |
| 1942 | $72 | 44% | Defense tripled |
| 1943 | $137 | 57% | |
| 1944 | $201 | 90% | Bretton Woods |
| 1945 | $259 | 114% | WWII ended |
| 1946 | $269 | 119% | Truman's 1st term budgets & recession |
| 1947 | $258 | 105% | Cold War |
| 1948 | $252 | 93% | Recession |
| 1949 | $253 | 93% | Recession |
| 1950 | $257 | 89% | Korean War boosted growth and debt |
| 1951 | $255 | 74% | |
| 1952 | $259 | 72% | |
| 1953 | $266 | 68% | Recession when war ended |
| 1954 | $271 | 70% | Eisenhower's budgets & Recession |
| 1955 | $274 | 65% | |
| 1956 | $273 | 61% | |
| 1957 | $271 | 57% | Recession |
| 1958 | $276 | 58% | Eisenhower's 2nd term & Recession |
| 1959 | $285 | 54% | Fed raised rates |
| 1960 | $286 | 53% | Recession |
| 1961 | $289 | 52% | Bay of Pigs |
| 1962 | $298 | 49% | JFK budgets & Cuban missile crisis |
| 1963 | $306 | 48% | U.S. aids Vietnam; JFK killed |
| 1964 | $312 | 46% | LBJ's budgets & War on poverty |
| 1965 | $317 | 43% | U.S. entered Vietnam War |
| 1966 | $320 | 40% | |
| 1967 | $326 | 38% | |
| 1968 | $348 | 37% | |
| 1969 | $354 | 35% | Nixon took office |
| 1970 | $371 | 35% | Recession |
| 1971 | $398 | 34% | Wage-price controls |
| 1972 | $427 | 34% | Stagflation |
| 1973 | $458 | 32% | Nixon ended gold standard & OPEC oil embargo |
| 1974 | $475 | 31% | Watergate & budget process created |
| 1975 | $533 | 32% | Vietnam War ended |
| 1976 | $620 | 33% | Stagflation |
| 1977 | $699 | 33% | Stagflation |
| 1978 | $772 | 32% | Carter budgets & recession |
| 1979 | $827 | 31% | |
| 1980 | $908 | 32% | Volcker raised fed rate to 20% |
| 1981 | $998 | 31% | Reagan tax cut |
| 1982 | $1,142 | 34% | Reagan increased spending |
| 1983 | $1,377 | 37% | Jobless rate 10.8% |
| 1984 | $1,572 | 38% | Increased defense spending |
| 1985 | $1,823 | 42% | |
| 1986 | $2,125 | 46% | Reagan lowered taxes |
| 1987 | $2,340 | 48% | Market crash |
| 1988 | $2,602 | 49% | Fed raised rates |
| 1989 | $2,857 | 50% | Bush 41 budgets & S&L Crisis |
| 1990 | $3,233 | 54% | First Iraq War |
| 1991 | $3,665 | 59% | Recession |
| 1992 | $4,065 | 62% | |
| 1993 | $4,411 | 64% | Clinton signed Budget Act |
| 1994 | $4,693 | 64% | Clinton budgets |
| 1995 | $4,974 | 65% | |
| 1996 | $5,225 | 64% | Welfare reform |
| 1997 | $5,413 | 62% | |
| 1998 | $5,526 | 61% | LTCM crisis & recession |
| 1999 | $5,656 | 58% | Glass-Steagall repealed |
| 2000 | $5,674 | 55% | Budget surplus |
| 2001 | $5,807 | 55% | 9/11 attacks & EGTRRA |
| 2002 | $6,228 | 57% | War on Terror |
| 2003 | $6,783 | 59% | JGTRRA & Iraq War |
| 2004 | $7,379 | 60% | Iraq War |
| 2005 | $7,933 | 60% | Bankruptcy Act & Katrina. |
| 2006 | $8,507 | 61% | Bernanke chaired Fed |
| 2007 | $9,008 | 62% | Bank crisis |
| 2008 | $10,025 | 68% | Bank bailout & QE. |
| 2009 | $11,910 ($11,000 on Mar 16 and $12,000 on Nov 16) | 83% | Bailout cost $250B ARRA added $241.9B |
| 2010 | $13,562 ($13,000 on Jun 1 and $14,000 on Dec 31 | 90% | ARRA added $400B. Payroll tax holiday ended. Obama Tax cuts. ACA. Simpson-Bowles |
| 2011 | $14,790 ($15,000 on Nov 15) | 95% | Debt crisis. Recession and tax cuts reduced revenue. |
| 2012 | $16,066 ($16,000 on Aug 31) | 99% | Fiscal cliff |
| 2013 | $16,738 ($17,000 on Oct 17) | 99% | Sequester. Government shutdown |
| 2014 | $17,824 ($18,000 on Dec 15) | 101% | QE ended. Debt ceiling crisis. |
| 2015 | $18,151 | 99% | Defense = $736.4B |
| 2016 | $19,573 ($19,000 on Jan 29) | 104% | Defense = $767.6B |
| 2017 | $20,245 ($20,000 on Sep 8) | 103% | Congress raised debt ceiling |
| 2018 | $21,516 ($21,000 on Mar 15) | 104% | Trump tax cuts |
| 2019 | $22,776 ($22,000 on Feb 10, $23,000 on Oct 31 ) | 106% | Defense = $956.5B |
| 2020 | $26,600 (est.) ($24,000 on April 7, $25,000 on May 4, $26,000 on June 10) | 136% | COVID reduced GDP, CARES Act, End of year from CBO Estimates |