Monetarism and How It Works
When Milton Friedman and the Monetarists Ruled
Monetarism is an economic theory that says the money supply is the most important driver of economic growth. As the money supply increases, people demand more. Factories produce more, creating new jobs.
Monetarists warn that increasing the money supply only provides a temporary boost to economic growth and job creation. Over the long run, it will increase inflation. As demand outstrips supply, prices will rise.
Monetarists believe monetary policy is more effective than fiscal policy. That's government spending and tax policy. Stimulus spending adds to the money supply, but it creates a deficit. This adds to the country's sovereign debt. That will increase interest rates. Monetarists say that central banks are more powerful than the government because they control the money supply.
Today, monetarism has gone out of favor. That's because the money supply is a less useful measure of liquidity than in the past. Liquidity includes cash, credit and money market mutual funds. Credit includes loans, bonds and mortgages. But the money supply does not measure other assets, such as stocks, commodities and home equity. People are more likely to save money in the stock market as money markets. They receive a better return.
That means the money supply does not measure these assets. If the stock market rises, people feel wealthy. They are more willing to spend. That increases demand and boosts the economy. These assets created booms that the Fed ignored. They led to the 2001 recession and the Great Recession.
How Does It Work?
When the money supply is expanded, it lowers interest rates, because banks have more on hand to lend, so they are willing to charge lower rates. That means consumers borrow more to buy big ticket items like houses, automobiles, and furniture. Decreasing the money supply raises interest rates, making loans more expensive and slowing economic growth.
In the United States, the Federal Reserve manages the money supply with the fed funds rate. This is a targeted rate the Fed sets for banks to charge each other to store their excess cash overnight and it impacts all other interest rates. The Fed uses other monetary tools, such as the reserve requirement, which tells banks how much of their money they must have on reserve each night.
The Fed reduces inflation by raising the fed funds rate or decreasing the money supply. This is known as contractionary monetary policy. However, the Fed must be careful not to tip the economy into recession. To avoid recession, and the resultant unemployment, the Fed must lower the fed funds rate and increase the money supply. This is known as expansionary monetary policy.
Milton Friedman Is the Father of Monetarism
Milton Friedman created the theory of monetarism in his 1967 address to the American Economic Association. He said that the antidote to inflation was higher interest rates. That would reduce the money supply. Prices would have to fall as people had less money to spend.
Milton also warned against increasing the money supply too fast. That would create inflation. But a gradual increase is necessary to prevent higher unemployment rates. If the Fed properly managed the money supply it would create a Goldilocks economy. That's low unemployment with an acceptable level of inflation.
Friedman blamed the Fed for the Great Depression. He said the Fed tightened the money supply when it should have loosened it. The Fed raised interest rates to defend the value of the dollar. It was sinking as people redeemed their paper currency for gold. At that time, the United States was still on the gold standard. By raising rates, the Fed made loans harder to get. That worsened the recession into a depression.
Federal Reserve Chair Paul Volcker used monetarism to end stagflation. He raised the fed funds rate to 20 percent in 1980. That ended inflation. But it was at a high cost. It created the 1980-82 recession.
Fed Chair Ben Bernanke agreed with Milton's suggestion that the Fed cultivate mild inflation. He was the first Fed chair to set an official inflation target of 2 percent year-over-year. That's the core inflation rate that strips out volatile gas and food prices. (Sources: A Monetary Explanation of the Great Stagflation of the 1970s," NBER, February 2000. "Monetarism," Econlib. "Milton Friedman," Econlib.)