Irrational Exuberance, Its Quotes, Dangers, and Examples
The Hidden Danger of Irrational Exuberance
Irrational exuberance is when investors are so confident that the price of an asset will keep going up, they lose sight of its underlying value. They overlook deteriorating economic fundamentals in the pursuit of ever-higher returns. Instead, they get into a bidding war and send prices up even higher. Irrational exuberance drives the peak phase of the business cycle.
Alan Greenspan Quote
Former Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan, first coined the phrase in a 1996 speech to the American Enterprise Institute. In "The Challenge of Central Banking in a Democratic Society," Greenspan asked how central bankers could tell whether asset values were overpriced.
"But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions as they have in Japan over the past decade?" (Source: “Speech to the American Enterprise Institute,” Alan Greenspan, December 6, 1996.)
Greenspan noted that low-interest rates had created steady earnings. It led to complacency on the part of investors. They ignored risks as they sought ever-higher returns.
He then asked whether central banks should address irrational exuberance with monetary policy. At the time, the Fed didn't concern itself with the stock market or even real estate prices. He did note though, that central bankers must get involved when they sense that speculative frenzy is driving a dangerous bubble. He concluded that when the stock market or any asset class affects the economy, then central bankers must get involved.
Robert Shiller Book
In 2000, Yale professor and behavioral economist, Robert J. Shiller, wrote a book titled "Irrational Exuberance." The book became famous because it explained the herd mentality that created the tech stock bubble in 2000. He also predicted the subsequent stock market crash that led to the 2001 recession.
He released a second edition in 2005. It predicted the housing bubble and subsequent crash. Shiller also pointed how the 2001 recession created the financial crisis. As investors lost confidence in the falling stock market, they invested in real estate. This ended up creating a bubble there.
The risk of irrational exuberance is that it creates asset bubbles. It's hidden because it looks like prices are rising for valid reasons. But anything can burst the bubble. As a result, the frenzy of greed turns to panic when asset prices return to their real-world values.
Investors sell at any cost, sending prices below their real value. The collapse then spreads to other asset classes. In the end, it can slow economic growth and create a recession. See Can a Stock Market Crash Cause a Recession?
The latest boom-bust cycle happened with oil prices in 2014. After reaching $100.14 in June, West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices plummeted 15 percent to $53.45 on December 26, 2014. It was the last trading day of 2014. It then fell to $38.22 on August 28, 2015, the lowest for the year. These low prices started affecting the economy in 2015. In particular, U.S. oil companies in the shale oil industry laid off workers. Later in 2015, many started defaulting on junk bonds.
The bursting of the oil price bubble was in part in response to irrational exuberance in the U.S. dollar. Investors increased the dollar's strength by 25 percent in 2014 and 2015. It affected manufacturers' exports by giving an artificial boost to their prices. Gross domestic product slumped in the third quarter.
The strong dollar also drove up the value of the Chinese yuan, which was pegged to the dollar. In response, the People's Bank of China lowered the yuan's value by 3 percent in August 2015. That triggered a Chinese stock market crash and raised concerns of currency wars.
Irrational exuberance also happened with gold prices in 2011. Fortunately, it didn't spread to the rest of the economy.
It happened with Treasury notes as well. Prices reached a peak in 2012, creating the lowest yields in 200 years. Demand for Treasurys didn't fall until the Fed began raising rates in 2015.
Asset bubbles occurred with stocks in 2013. Prices rose 30 percent, outpacing underlying fundamentals.