Huge 2016 Presidential Race Mistake

We Made a Huge Mistake on the 2016 Presidential Race Prediction

Donald Trump Campaign Rally
Donald Trump Campaign Rally. Darren McCollester

Before we get right into this article, I need to come clean.  I got the outcome very wrong, and even had used endless lines of facts, various calculations, and typically reliable election analysis.

Everything I looked at pointed to a strongly overwhelming Hillary Clinton victory.  At the end of the day, I was as surprised by the outcome as perhaps even Donald Trump himself.  

Congratulations are due to President Trump, and I personally deserve to "eat a lot of crow" for my 100% completely incorrect call on the way the Electoral College votes were going to play out.

 As part of my penance, you can see (and laugh at) the original article below... laid out, in it's unedited and original form

The original title was, "Huge 2016 Presidential Race Spoiler."  Please do not laugh too hard.

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Nothing mentioned here is intended to be supportive of any specific political views, or my own preferences or hopes.  Rather, it is just an explanation of the way this election is going to play out.

For anyone who has followed me for any length of time, you will remember that I explained why Obama would not only defeat Romney, but that he would do it by a landslide.  Of course, that is exactly what happened, and it will be simple to predict the results of the 2016 election as well.

In fact, Romney later explained that he actually believed he would win!  That means he is either seeing what he wants to see (confirmation bias), or is surrounded by yes-men.  

A quick 5 minute conversation with me would have readjusted his entire outlook, and perhaps he would have adjusted his approach to actually be able to win, instead of merely putting on a show about how to keep your head buried in the sand.

First of all, stop believing the media when they say, "but those results are within the margin of error."  Yes, any expected values will have a margin of error, but that typically makes no difference at the end of the day.  

If candidate A has a 4% lead in the polls, the media will mention that the margin of error is 6%.

 That is just their way to keep you watching a foregone conclusion, as if the battle is still up in the air.  But here is the huge spoiler alert:  candidate A wins.  Truly, the margin of error comes into play so infrequently that it is not worth talking about.

In 2016, the Presidential hopeful will need to capture 270 Electoral College votes to win the Presidency, with each State representing a different "weight," such as 29 from Florida, 55 from California, 5 from New Mexico, and so on...

With the exception of a few States, each is a winner-take-all proposition.  If 9 million people vote for Candidate A, but 9 million and one vote for Candidate B, the latter politician takes all 55 Electoral College votes.  This is the exact same result as if zero people voted Candidate A, and 18 million went for B.  

This is why there is absolutely no representative voting in America (even though most people believe that there is).  Ideally, and as evidenced in nearly every developed nation worldwide, each State or region's votes would be counted by their sub-district - such as California's 55 regions voting for the interests of each area independently.  

All 55 could elect a Republican, or 20 go GOP while the other 35 go Democrat, or 27 versus 28, or however the people voted.

 But alas, the winner-take-all nature of the process completely ignores the wants of most voters.

This set-up is why every election comes down to a few battleground States.  If one party only needs two of Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Colorado, and Wisconsin to win, they focus all advertising, campaign stops, and political promises on those States, and ignore the rest.

You can be relatively certain of a few things:  Texas will go Republican with their 38 Electoral College votes, as will Lousiana (8), Alaska (3), Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Alabama (9 - Roll Tide), and so on.

The Democrats take California (55), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Washington (12), New York (29), and so forth.

You may already be doing the math, but I'll skip ahead for you - democrats have 221 uncontested votes, the Republicans have 191, and there are 126 up-for-grabs between the 9 battleground States; Nevada, Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Idaho, and Wisconsin.

 

In many of these 9 States, the Democrats are already in a comfortable-enough lead to capture them, even when considering the forced "margin of error" warnings that the media will drown you with by the time May rolls around.  So barring any major gaffs by any specific politicians between now and then, the 2016 election is shaping up to be another Democratic victory.

There is no easy way to say this to certain people.  Despite all the hoopla, no, Donald Trump will not be your next President, not will any Republican.  Remember, this is not according to me, or based on my own political opinions - it is according to math.