Fed Funds Rate History with Its Highs, Lows and Chart

The Federal Reserve prefers to keep the fed funds rate between 2 and 5 percent. It's the sweet spot that maintains a healthy economy. That's where the nation's gross domestic product grows between 2 percent and 3 percent annually. It has a natural unemployment rate between 4.5 percent and 5 percent. Price increases remain below the Fed's inflation target of a 2 percent core inflation rate. The fed funds rate was 2.5 percent as of March 21, 2019.

But there were times in history where the nation's benchmark interest rate was well above its sweet spot. That was to curb runaway inflation. Between 2008 and 2015, it was well below the target to stimulate economic growth. Once you see how the Fed changed the fed funds rate, you will understand how it managed inflation and recession.

Highest Fed Funds Rate

The fed funds rate reached a high of 20 percent in 1979 and 1980. That was to combat double-digit inflation. 

That bout of inflation began in 1973 after President Nixon weakened the dollar by disengaging it from the gold standard. Inflation tripled from 3.9 percent to 9.6 percent. The Fed doubled interest rates from 5.75 to a high of 11 points. Inflation continued to remain in the double-digits through all of 1974. It lasted until April 1975. The Fed kept raising the fed funds rate to a peak of 13 in July 1974, and then dramatically lowered the rate, reaching 7.5 by January 1975.

These sudden changes, known as stop-go monetary policy, confused businesses. They kept prices high to stay ahead of the Fed's interest rate spikes. That only made inflation worse. Fed leaders learned that managing inflation expectations was a critical factor in controlling inflation itself.

In 1979, Federal Reserve chair Paul Volcker ended the Fed's stop-go policy.

He raised rates and kept them there to finally end inflation. That created the 1980 recession, but double-digit inflation hasn't been a threat since. 

Lowest Fed Funds Rate

The all-time low was 0.25 percent. That's effectively zero. The Fed lowered it to this level on December 17, 2008, the 10th rate cut in a little over a year. It didn't raise rates until December 2015. 

Before this, the lowest fed funds rate was 1 percent in 2003 to combat the 2001 recession. At the time, there were fears that the economy was drifting toward deflation.

Fed Funds Rate History

The chart below shows the targeted fed funds rate changes since 1971. Until October 1979, the Federal Open Market Committee didn't announce its target interest rate after meetings. The target rate was inferred by an archived chart published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The bank adjusted the rate through open market operations. As a result, the rates changed gradually, even in between meetings. Businesses were forced to guess what the rates would be. The Fed tried to fight inflation without managing the expectations of inflation.

In 1979, the Fed began targeting the money supply to fight inflation. As a result, the fed funds rate fluctuated a great deal between 1979 and 1982.

In 1982, the  Fed returned to targeting the fed funds rate specifically.

In February 1994, the FOMC formally announced its policy changes for the first time. Since then, its announcements make it clear what it wants the interest rate to be. 

The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis publishes a complete history of the effective fed funds rate since 1954. The Fed also has transcripts of all meetings since 1936.

Fed Chair: Arthur Burns January 1970 - March 1978

1971: GDP = 3.3%, Unemployment = 6.0%, Inflation = 3.3% 

1972: GDP = 5.3%, Unemployment = 5.2%, Inflation = 3.4%

1973: GDP = 5.6%, Unemployment = 4.9%, Inflation = 8.7% 

1974: GDP = -0.5%, Unemployment = 7.2%, Inflation = 12.3%

1975: GDP = -0.2%, Unemployment = 8.2%, Inflation = 6.9%

1976: GDP = 5.4%, Unemployment = 7.8%, Inflation = 4.9%

1976: GDP = 5.4%, Unemployment = 7.8%, Inflation = 4.9%

1977: GDP = 4.6%, Unemployment = 6.4%, Inflation = 6.7%

Fed Chair William Miller (March 1978 - August 1979)

1978: GDP = 5.5%, Unemployment = 6.0%, Inflation = 9.0%

Fed Chair Paul Volcker (August 1979 - August 1987)

1979: GDP = 3.2%, Unemployment = 6.0%, Inflation = 13.3% 

1980: GDP = -0.3%, Unemployment = 7.2%, Inflation = 12.5%

1981: GDP = 2.5%, Unemployment = 8.5%, Inflation = 8.9%

1982: GDP = -1.8%, Unemployment = 10.8%, Inflation = 3.8%

1983: GDP = 4.6%, Unemployment = 8.3%, Inflation = 3.8%

1984: GDP = 7.2%, Unemployment = 7.3%, Inflation = 3.9%

1985: GDP = 4.2%, Unemployment = 7.0%, Inflation = 3.8%

1986: GDP = 3.5%, Unemployment = 6.6%, Inflation = 1.1%

Fed Chair Alan Greenspan (August 1987 - January 2006)

1987: GDP = 3.5%, Unemployment = 5.7%, Inflation = 4.4%  

1988 : GDP = 4.2%, Unemployment = 5.3%, Inflation = 4.4%

1989: GDP = 3.7%, Unemployment = 5.4%, Inflation = 4.6%

1990: GDP = 1.9%, Unemployment = 6.3%, Inflation = 6.1%

1991: GDP = -0.1%, Unemployment = 7.3%, Inflation = 3.1%

1992: GDP = 3.5%, Unemployment = 7.4%, Inflation = 2.9%

1993: GDP = 2.8%, Unemployment = 5.5%, Inflation = 2.7%. 

• Clinton took office in 1993. Fed made no changes.

1994: GDP = 4.0%, Unemployment = 5.5%, Inflation = 2.7%

1995: GDP = 2.7%, Unemployment = 5.6%, Inflation = 2.5%

1996: GDP = 3.8%, Unemployment = 5.4%, Inflation = 3.3%

1997: GDP = 4.4%, Unemployment = 4.7%, Inflation = 1.7% 

1998: GDP = 4.5%, Unemployment = 6%, Inflation = 1.6%

1999: GDP = 4.8%, Unemployment = 6%, Inflation = 2.7%

2000: GDP = 4.1%, Unemployment = 6%, Inflation = 3.4%

2001: GDP = 1.0%, Unemployment = 6%, Inflation = 1.6%

2002: GDP = 1.7%, Unemployment = 6%, Inflation = 2.4%

2003: GDP = 2.9%, Unemployment = 6%, Inflation = 1.9%

2004: GDP = 3.8%, Unemployment = 6%, Inflation = 3.3%

2005: GDP = 3.5%, Unemployment = 6%, Inflation = 3.4%

Fed Chair Ben Bernanke (February 2006 - January 2014)

2006: GDP = 2.9%, Unemployment = 6%, Inflation = 2.5% 

2007: GDP = 1.9%, Unemployment = 6%, Inflation = 4.1%

2008: GDP = -0.1%, Unemployment = 6%, Inflation = 0.1%

• The Fed kept the rate at zero between 2008 and 2015. Recession ended in June 2009.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen (February 2014 - February 2018)

2015: GDP = 2.9%, Unemployment = 6%, Inflation = 0.7% 

2016: GDP = 1.6%, Unemployment = 4.6%, Inflation = 2.1% 

2017: GDP = 2.2%, Unemployment = 4.1%, Inflation = 2.1%

Fed Chair Jerome Powell (February 2018 - February 2022)

2018

(Sources:  Prior to 1990, "Archive," Federal Reserve Bank of New York. " H-15 Data Download," Federal Reserve. Since 1990, "Open Market Archive," Federal Reserve.  "A History of Fed Leaders and Interest Rates," The New York Times, December 16, 2015. "History of Recessions," TheBalance.com. "Inflation," Bureau of Labor Statistics.)