Climate Change Facts and Effect on the Economy
What Has Climate Change Cost Us? What's Being Done?
Climate change is the Earth’s response to increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. These greenhouse gases trap infrared heat from the sun. That has raised the earth’s average temperature 2.0 degrees Fahrenheit since the late 19th century. Previous bouts of climate change happened much more slowly. Slight changes in the earth’s orbit created those warming and cooling periods.
The increase in global warming has created other problems.
The oceans are absorbing the carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. In response, they’ve are 30 percent more acid since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. They’ve also become warmer. The top 2,300 feet are 0.3 degrees warmer since 1969, causing them to expand.
The polar ice sheets are melting. The onslaught of fresh water is shifting the global circulation of the oceans. Typically, surface waters traveling northward become colder. As they chill, they become more dense and sink. Once the hit the ocean floor, they roll back south. The cycle is called convection.
Melting ice puts fresh water into the equation. It is less dense than salty water. As a result, it doesn't sink as it should. It stays on the ocean's surface, slowing the "ocean conveyor belt." The conveyor belt brings tropic water to the shores of Great Britain and northern Europe. If it slows or stops, that area will become much colder.
It's at the same latitude as Newfoundland in North America. In fact, the ocean conveyor belt has slowed 15 percent since 2008.
As a result, sea levels have risen 8.9 inches in the last 100 years. Glaciers and snow cover are also shrinking. That heats up the atmosphere even more, since snow reflects heat back into space.
Higher temperatures have created more damaging and frequent natural disasters.
Natural disasters have also taken a toll on the economy in the last seven years. In 2017, Hurricane Harvey cost $180 billion. In 2015, the drought cost California $2.7 billion. In 2014, the polar vortex walloped the United States in, shrinking the economy by 2.1 percent. In 2013, the most destructive tornado in U.S. history hit Oklahoma City, costing $2 billion in damages. In 2012, Hurricane Sandy cost $50 billion. in 2011, the Mississippi River flood was a 500-year event that left $2 billion in damages.
A 2017 poll showed that 55 percent of Americans believe that climate change made hurricanes worse. That's up from the 39 percent who said so 10 years ago. As a result, 48 percent reported being afraid of climate change.
Global warming has melted the ice caps in Antarctica at 1.6 meters per year, compared to 3.8 centimeters annually before 1992. The United Nations said that to reverse the impact, the world's average temperature must be limited to 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. As of February 2016, the average temperature has already surpassed 1.5 degrees above preindustrial levels.
As the country experiences more extremely hot days, food prices will rise.
That's because corn and soybean yields in the United States plummet precipitously when temperatures rise above 84 degrees Fahrenheit. Those crops feed cattle and other meat sources. That will make beef, milk and poultry prices rise. Worker productivity declines sharply, particularly for outdoor jobs. That will further raise the cost of food.
Climate change will cause mass migration around the world. By 2050, climate change will force 700 million people to emigrate. They will leave flooded coastlines, drought-stricken farmlands, and areas of extreme natural disasters.
Timeline of Natural Disasters — Just a Coincidence?
Many people assume that climate change and global warming just means temperatures will gradually get warmer. Maybe one day melting ice caps will raise the sea level enough to flood New York City.
But climate change also means unpredictable and violent storms, droughts, and floods around the world. That's according to John P. Holdren, Director of Woods Hole Research Center, and other experts. Here are examples that prove their point.
2016 - Scientists reported record-high temperatures for the fifth year in a row. Some areas also experienced record levels of typhoons, flooding and heat waves. Two-thirds of the Great Barrier Reef bleached out due to high water temperatures.
2015 - California's six-year drought emptied groundwater reservoirs, forcing water restrictions on farmers and families. It cost $2.7 billion and 21,000 jobs in 2015.
2014 - The polar vortex hit the Midwest, slowing retail sales and economic growth.
2013 - The Oklahoma City tornado was the most destructive in U.S. history, totaling $2 billion in damages.
2011 - The Mississippi River flood was a 500-year event. It left at least $2 billion in damages. Hurricane Irene left $20 billion in damage and $45 billion in total impact on the economy. The worst tornado season in U.S. history occurred, with 305 twisters hitting in one week, wreaking $3 billion in damages. Japan's earthquake and tsunami cost between $300 billion. Iceland's volcano cost $1.2 billion in lost air traffic.
2010 - Haiti earthquake caused at least $8.5 billion in damages.
2009 - Plenty of natural disasters but no mega-disasters.
2008 - The world was buffeted by floods, hurricanes and cyclones:
- Guangdong province in southern China experienced the highest rainfall in history. Resultant flooding killed 57 people, displaced 1.5 million and ruined crops on 860,000 hectares of cropland.
- Heavy rainfall in the Midwest caused flooding, resulting in the destruction of 12 percent of crops. This contributed to higher prices for corn and soybean.
- Hurricane Gustav cost $25 billion in damage to Louisiana, Mississippi and lost oil production.
- Hurricane Ike cost $25 billion in damage alone and boosted gas prices to $5 a gallon.
- A typhoon in the Philippines capsized a ship carrying 845 passengers and displaced 360,000 inland.
- Cyclone Nargis in Burma displaced 2.4 million people. Over 134,000 were dead or missing. Large parts of the delta were completely destroyed. (Sources: "Floods Kill at Least 57 in China," VOA, June 16, 2008. "Six Weeks After Cyclone, Burma Devastation Remains Uncertain," VOA, June 11, 2008. "Along the Mississippi, Wary Eyes on Rising Water," IHT, June 18, 2008. "More than 800 Missing after Philippine Ferry Capsized amid Deadly Typhoon," New York Times, June 22, 2008.)
2007 - More droughts and floods pummeled the world.
- Georgia, Florida and Alabama had their worst dry spell in recorded history. At one point, Atlanta was down to a three-month supply of water.
- Massive floods hit Mexico and affected one million people, creating "...one of the worst natural disasters in the history of the country, " according to then-President Felipe Calderon.
- An aggressive monsoon season hit India, Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh. They created the worst floods in living memory, according to UNICEF. Damage was $120 million. Thirty million people were displaced and 2,000 killed.
2006 - A relatively normal disaster season.
Scientists Agree that Man Caused It
On November 3, 2017, the Trump administration released a report that blamed climate change on human activity. It predicted that the ocean could rise another eight feet by 2100. Most scientific and government organizations agree that a manmade increase in greenhouse gases cause global warming.
These gases include carbon dioxide, hydrofluorocarbons, and perfluorocarbons. They have accumulated in the earth's atmosphere over the last 150 years. They prevent the sun's radiation from going back into space. The heat builds up like it does in a greenhouse. Ninety percent of it is absorbed by the Earth's oceans.
Current levels are at 370 parts per million volume, up from 280 ppmv 100 years ago. Emissions have increased 4 percent since 1990. But 2015 levels dropped slightly from the prior year. Power plants began switching from coal to natural gas and a warmer winter reduced demand for heating oil.
Modern processes that burn fossil fuels release the gases. They include deforestation, factory farming, industrial procedures like aluminum smelting. The biggest cause is the burning of oil in all its forms. According to the Environmental Protection Agency, the U.S. sources in 2015 were:
|Electricity Generation||Coal, Natural Gas||29%|
|Commercial and Residential||Heating Oil||12%|
|Forestry||Absorbs CO2||offset 11 %|
Mankind's Attempts to Stop it
The global community is trying to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. They are introducing measures to increase the use of clean energy, including electric vehicles.
December 11, 1997. The United Nations adopted the Kyoto Protocol. The European Community and 37 industrialized countries promised to reduce greenhouse gas emissions between 2008 and 2012. The first commitment was to 5 percent below 1990 levels. The second commitment period was from 2013 to 2020. They agreed to reduce emissions by 18 percent below 1990 levels.The United States never ratified it.
2008. The International Energy Administration called for countries to spend $45 trillion in the next 50 years to prevent global warming from slowing economic growth. To put this into perspective, the economic output of the entire world is only $65 billion a year.
The measures included building 32 nuclear power plants each year and reducing greenhouse gases by 50 percent by 2050. This would cost the world $100 billion to $200 billion a year for the next 10 years after 2008, and rise to $1 trillion to $2 trillion after that.
December 7, 2009. The Environmental Protection Agency found that concentrations of greenhouse gases threatened the public health. Based on this study, the EPA finalized emission standards for cars in 2010 and trucks in 2011.
December 18, 2009. The UN Climate Summit produced the Copenhagen Accord. Countries pledged to limit global temperature increases to 2 degrees Celsius over the pre-industrial level. President Obama badgered China's President Hu Jintao to sign the agreement. The European Union, other developed nations, and many developing nations also agreed to the limit.
In addition, the developed countries agreed to pay $100 billion a year by 2020 to assist poor countries affected the most by climate change. That includes relocating communities hit by floods and droughts and protecting water supplies. The countries agree to provide $30 billion over the next three years.
Obama had hoped developed countries would agree to reduce their emissions to 80 percent lower than 1990 levels by 2050. All other countries, including China, would reduce emissions by 50 percent. China blocked that agreement.
Some countries refused to sign the agreement because the United States refused to cut more than 4 percent of its emissions by 2020. That foot-dragging signaled to many that Obama was not any more committed than the Bush administration.
In 2010, China promised it would reach four climate goals by 2020.
- Reduce CO2 emissions by 40 percent below 2005 levels. (97 percent achieved in 2017.)
- Increase renewable energy consumption from 9.4 percent to 15 percent. (60 percent achieved.)
- Increase forest stock by 1.3 billion cubic meters. (Exceeded as of 2017.)
- Increase forest coverage by 40 million hectares relative to 2005. (60 percent achieved.)
December 18, 2015. The Paris Climate Accord was signed by 195 countries. They pledged to cut greenhouse gas emissions 26 to 28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025. They also committed $3 billion in aid for poorer countries by 2020. These are most likely to suffer damage from rising sea levels and other consequences of climate change.
The accord's goal is to keep global warming from worsening another 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. Many experts consider that the tipping point. Beyond that, and the consequences of climate change become unstoppable.
The United States is responsible for 20 percent of the world's carbon emissions. It would be difficult for the other signatories to reach the accord's goal without U.S. participation. But they are trying. Carbon is taxed in 60 jurisdictions around the world. China, Germany, Sweden, and Denmark are considering a tax on beef. Greenhouse gas emissions from livestock contribute 14.5 percent of the world's total.
Even if all countries follow the Accord, temperatures will continue to rise. That's because the measures need to be stricter to reverse global warming. As a result, the Climate Impact Lab predict major cities will see many days above 95-degree Fahrenheit. By 2100, Washington DC will experience 29 extremely hot days each year. That's quadruple the average of seven it experienced from 1986 to 2005.
June 1, 2017. President Trump announced the United States would withdraw from the Paris accord. Trump said he wanted to negotiate a better deal. Leaders from Germany, France and Italy said the accord is non-negotiable. China and India joined the other leaders in stating they remain committed to the accord. Some have argued that America's withdrawal from a leadership position creates a vacuum that China will readily fill. The United States cannot legally exit until November 1, 2020. That means it will become an issue in the next presidential election.
Business leaders from Tesla, General Electric and Goldman Sachs said this will give foreign competitors an edge in clean energy industries. That's because U.S. companies will lose government support and subsidies in these industries.
China is already taking the lead in electric vehicles. Almost half of the world's plug-in electric vehicles are sold in China. Its regulations and subsidies drive consumers away from gasoline-powered cars. China wants to reduce pollution. It also wants to reduce reliance on foreign oil. But more importantly, it wants to improve the country's auto makers. China's car market is so large, it's forcing foreign car makers to improve their electric vehicle production.
October 10, 2017. The Trump administration proposed to repeal the Clean Power Plan.
November 8, 2017. The European Union agreed to cut carbon-dioxide emissions by new vehicle by 30 percent between 2021 and 2030.
December 12, 2017. French President Emmanuel Macron convened 50 world leaders to the One Planet Summit. Trump was not invited because he withdrew from the accord. The summit focused on how to finance the global transition away from fossil fuels.
The United States and China Are 44 Percent of the Problem
In reality, a global agreement doesn't have to occur. Only 10 countries account for almost 70 percent of the world's carbon emissions. China and the United States are the worst, at 27 percent and 17 percent, respectively. Russia and India contribute a little more than 5 percent each, then comes Japan (3.6 percent), Germany (2.3 percent), Iran (1.9 percent), South Korea (1.9 percent), Canada (1.7 percent) and Saudi Arabia (1.7 percent).
If these 10 countries could agree to limit pollution and expand renewable technology, the other countries wouldn't really need be involved. (Source: "A Plan B for Climate Agreements," MIT Technology Review, June 12, 2014.)
But many of these countries are bitterly opposed to each other and often at war over boundaries, religion, and (of all things) oil. So it's easy to understand why little progress has been made since 1988, when the United Nations first tried to broker a solution.
But until there is stronger government leadership, we must create our own progress. Many everyday citizens and entrepreneurs are hard at work on innovative ways to address climate change. Republican Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House, argued for the importance of supporting entrepreneurial environmental solutions in his 2007 book A Contract with the Earth. Pressure on the market forces that got the atmosphere into trouble is the best solution to clean it up.
Corporations Are Cutting Back
The world's 1,000 biggest corporations contribute 12 percent of greenhouse-gas emissions. In 2017, 89 percent have plans to cut those emissions. But it's not enough to reach the U.N.'s target of 2 degrees Celsius. So far, 14 percent of the companies have goals that align with the target. Another 30 percent pledge do so in the next two years. Investment firms, such as HSBC Holdings and Goldmans Sachs, have begun targeting more low-carbon businesses.