Consumer Inflation Expectations Jump to New High

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That’s the inflation rate consumers are expecting over the coming year—the highest they’ve anticipated in at least eight years—according to a June survey by the New York Federal Reserve Bank.

The median expectation jumped from 4.0% in May, marking the second straight record high since the NY Fed began the monthly survey back in 2013. The findings, based on the forecast of about 1,300 heads of household around the U.S., help illuminate how the public is feeling about the trajectory for consumer prices, which have surged in recent months.

The economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic has been choppy, as a resurgence in demand outpaces the supply of staples like food, gas, and cars as well as raw materials. Federal Reserve officials have repeatedly maintained it’s likely a temporary set of circumstances, though last month they raised their projection for their preferred measure of inflation to 3.4% for 2021, from 2.4%.

On Tuesday the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Consumer Price Index for June after May’s figures showed prices rising 5% year-over-year—the most since 2008.

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Article Sources

  1. Federal Reserve Bank of New York. “Inflation Expectations.”

  2. Federal Reserve Bank of New York. “Consumers’ Short-term Inflation, Income, and Spending Expectations Continue to Rise.”

  3. Federal Reserve. “Summary of Economic Projections, June 16, 2021.” Page 2.

  4. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Consumer Price Index Summary, June 10, 2021.”